Africa Population Growth: Socio-economic consequences of rapid population growth in Africa.

Hello Africa,

World Bank (2020) estimates projects Africa population to grow at 2,5 percent per annum, and sub-Sahara Africa, at 4.7 percent. Estimates also show that the fertility rate is the highest in the world. With a current population of 1.3 billion people, it is projected at 2.5 billion by 2050. Nigeria and Egypt has a combined population of 308 million, and this represent 23 percent of the total population of Africa.  

In the last decade, the population of Africans have been rising as this has not been the case for a continent that has been experiencing slow growth in its population, particularly in the 20^th century. The issues associated with increasing population is not just numbers but rather the serious consequences of the wellbeing of Africans and humanity in general. If economic development involves the improvement in living standards, particularly, incomes, health, education, freedom of choices, dignity and self respect, then how will population growth interact with the standard of living of the people. 

The main socio-economic challenges facing the world today is the problem of over-population. Over-population exerts pressure on food production, the environment, living standards, and consequently, poverty. Some of the main causes of a growing population are, reduced mortality rate, immigration, lack of adequate fertility treatments in developing countries, poor contraceptive use, and poverty. The United Nations ( 2010) has predicted that 48 poorest developing nations will experience population growth from 850 million to 1.7 billion by 2050. Of the 10 most populous countries in the world with a combined population of 4.5 billion, the developing countries account for a staggering 80%. World population is currently growing at an average of 1.05% per year down from 1.08% in 2019. It continues to grow but at a slower pace compared to the 20^th century. UNFPA ( 2019) projects that global population will reach 10 billion humans by 2057.

The Demographic Transition Theory of Population which refers to the shift from a high birth rate and high infant death rates, in a country with low technology, to low birth rate and low death rate in countries with advanced technology, has not had any impact on Africa compared to other regions of the world. Some of the factors that drives the fertility rates are, the natural and traditional tendencies to have a large family, early marriages, maternal and family support, fertility preference for women to have children earlier in life, illiteracy, and increasing need for farming in agriculture.

The link between population growth and economic growth is contentious. Research has shown that low population growth in high income countries causes social and economic challenges, while high population growth in low-income countries tends to have a negative impact on development. Wesley and Peterson (2017) in the role that population plays in economic growth and development concluded that international migration also helps to make adjustments to the imbalances that a high population growth creates. A growing population means an increase in the number of working population which is vital in the economic development process. Secondly, the size of a country’s market for its goods and services is a function of the population size which encourages investors to raise investment for further growth. However, the Malthusian Theory thinks on the contrary that based on the diminishing returns in agriculture output, population growth becomes a barrier to development since the rate of increase is higher than the rate of agricultural output. This is the case in most developing countries of the world that are still largely agrarian and subsistence economies.

The neo-Malthusian perspective relates the negative effects of a growing population to the economic development of any nation. Much of the statistical data and findings of the impact of population growth on the economic wellbeing of citizens of developing countries, are influenced by the Malthusian theory regarding population growth. The Classicalists laid the foundation linking population growth and poverty. Malthus in his theory predicted that the incidence of hunger and starvation will be the likely outcome of an unchecked population growth. Crook (1996) observed that Malthus was not specific about the actual rate of increase that could lead to this state of hunger and starvation, but that any exponential growth rate would be sufficient. There has been a long debate linking population growth with the rate of poverty. Growth in national incomes have a negative relationship with population growth. Improvement in living standards and economic wellbeing tends to slow fertility rates and the growth in population.

There is little evidence that population growth positively impacts poverty. A growth in GDP raises national incomes, living conditions and wellbeing, reduce fertility rate, and population growth. Ahlburg (1996) suggested that there is indirect evidence of a link between population growth and poverty. Population growth reduces per capita income and wellbeing, and this ultimately raise the level of poverty. Countries with population growth rate higher than the growth rate in GDP tends to have lower per capita income, lower levels of economic wellbeing, and increasing poverty levels.

The socio-economic and political future of development in Africa lies in its strategies to reduce its population growth rate. rapid population growth negatively impacts wellbeing, poverty and economic inequality. The economic wellbeing of citizens of a country is a function of GDP per capita. Low levels of economic development results in many living in poverty, and a slight change in economic growth raises the per capita incomes, with population growth remaining constant, and an improvement in the quality of life of the citizens.

The consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries and Africa are dire and require urgent policy intervention by governments. The study of the determinants of fertility is required to curb the growth rate, and in today’s global environment, the greater the challenges with population growth in Africa, the greater the impact on the social and economic wellbeing of households and individuals. Many developing countries have instituted strategies to reduce population growth, while managing the relationship between population, economic development and well-being. 

Rapid population in Africa has resulted in high urban growth rate, overcrowding, air and water pollution, development of slums, and high crime rate. This growth has outstripped food production, which has put so much pressure on available arable land. Africa has the highest population growth rate in the world and estimated at 2.7 percent, and more than twice the growth rate in South Asia, and Latin America, at 1.2 and 0.9 percent respectively. Food production, in some African countries, hardly keep up with population growth, and hence resort to food imports. Nigeria, with a population of 210 million, relies on food imports to meet its food and agricultural product needs. She spends about $12 billion annually. Africa imports about $38 billion annually, and this is projected to rise to over $100 billion by 2025. 

Enoma Ojo (2022)

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